TURKISH ROLE IN ARMERIAN & AZERBAIJANI CONFLICT

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan goes as far as about a century ago in 1920s right from the peak of Russian Civil War (1917-1923) when the Red Army under Colonel Budyony and his First Cavalry Division defeated the Second White Army based in Southern Russia and in Caucasus region under General Denekkin which was later evacuated to Constantinople with the help of British and French Fleet which was at the time under the occupation of Allies.

After the Defeat of White Russian Army in Caucasus, at the same time “Father of Modern Turkey” Mustafa Kamal Ataturk was engaged in heavy fighting with Occupiers of Turkey mainly Greece, Italy, French and British which was later known was the famous “Turkish War of Independence”. These both wars had deep impact on the both states of Armenia and Azerbaijan as The Ottoman Empire was accused of Genocide against the Armenian people which is heavily debated by modern historians and the Armenian People organized themselves into small fighting forces of Mountain Guerrilla militia’s.

The Turkish Parliament established by Ataturk in 1919 based in Ankara was deliberate in finding Allies in order to establish resistance and to end the Occupation of Allies at the same time they were continuously harassed by Armenian Militias who were fighting for a bigger Armenian state which was strongly opposed by Ataturk and at the same time during “The Paris Peace Conference” a new treaty was proposed called as “The Treaty of Serves” and signed by many to divide Turkey among themselves and for a larger and better Armenian State, this treaty was quickly rejected and collapsed due to the stiff resistance of Ataturk and his agreement was the Red Army under the Vladimir Lenin to allow Soviet Red Army to enter into the Southern Caucasus region and occupy Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in return The Soviets will help to organize Turkish forces and supply them with the most necessary arms and ammunition to fight the Allies and end the occupation.

Based on Treaty of Serves Greater Armenia was to be formed but never took place instead they lost their entire country to the Red Army. The Agreement between Ataturk and Lenin led to the end of one occupation and laid stone to the annexation and partial occupation of several Caucasus states in the hands of Soviet Union.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union was the process of internal disintegration within the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), which began in the late 1980s with growing unrest in the various constituent republics, and ended on December 26, 1991, when the Supreme Soviet voted to dissolve. This marked another turning of events as both arch rivals became independent and hostilities began for the Nagorno-Karabakh’s region.

A full scale war broke out in 1992 right after both declared their independence and started fighting over the region, this low intensity war went on for almost two years with the Armenian forces having the upper hand in the fighting and continuously pushing back the Azerbaijani forces and eventually capturing the Nagorno-Karabakh region from Azerbaijan, which led to several Hundred Thousands displaced mainly Azeri people who are still living in Refugee camps in Baku and as the war waged on Azerbaijan was planning to launch a full scale counter attack to take back the territories it lost to Armenian forces but this offensive never took place or occurred as Russian Federation stepped in and started Peace Talks to halt the fighting and Russian Brokered Ceasefire was organized and ending the hostilities over the region thus putting the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the State of Arstakhinto Armenian occupation but eventhough all the time small scale border skirmishes continued through-out the decade.

But the current Turkish Leadership under RajebTayyabErdogan wants to promote it Neo-Ottoman strategy with its deep involvement in the regional conflict’s from its support to Syrian Opposition in the Syrian Civil war by organizing Syrian Rebel forces most famously and commonly known as FSA [Free Syrian Army] and NSA [ National Syrian Army] these action led to Turkish occupation in several Syrian places in North and North-East Syria mainly Afrin, Idlib and from Tel Abbyad and Ras al Ayn, Turkish Authorities take full actions and measures to rebuild those conquered territory in order to re-settle 3.6 Million Syrian Refugees currently living inside Turkey and also its involvement in the Libyan Civil War by supporting the UN recognized GNA [Government of National Accord] against the Renegade General Warlord KhalifaHaftar by sending Syrian Militants as well as its own Turkish Army based on agreement in 2019, according to SOHR [Syrian Observatory for Human Rights] about 14,000 Syrian and Turkish forces were sent to fight there.

This same policy was implement with Azerbaijan after about two months ago a new border skirmish between Armenia & Azerbaijan in July which led to killing of High level Azeri General and the entire population was vowing for Revenge. Turkey extended its helping hand to Azerbaijan and promised to help and support in all the sectors required and pledged to assist them in the right to reclaim their sovereignty over the disputed region this was followed by high level delegation meeting of both Foreign and Defence Ministers of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

On the eve of September 27th,2020 Azerbaijan launched a full scale attack on Armenian positions in the disputed region accusing them of targeting civilian areas around the region and claiming that Azeri forces have launched a counter-attack to fend off Armenian aggression.

Despite all international efforts to implement ceasefire and restore peace talks both are not interested and have pledged to fight till last man with Azerbaijan receiving Turkish support in both diplomatic and military assistance and Armenia receiving Russian support and for necessary supplies.

Azerbaijani and Armenian forces claimed more losses in the daysof clashes in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In a statement on October 8th, the Armenian Ministry of Defence summarized Azerbaijani losses in the last three days as follows:

  • 4069soldiers killed;
  • 145drones shot down;
  • 16helicopters shot down;
  • 496 battle tanks and armoured vehicles destroyed;
  • 17 plane shot down;
  • 4 heavy rocket launcher destroyed.

The Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan summarized Armenian losses in a new statement as follows:

  • 6000 soldiers neutralized;
  • 250 battle tanks and armoured vehicles destroyed;
  • 150 anti-tank weapon destroyed;
  • 11 command and control centre’s destroyed;
  • 270 artillery piece and rocket launchers destroyed;
  • 150 military vehicles destroyed;
  • 60 air-defence systems destroyed;
  • 1 S-300 long-range air-defence system destroyed.

As the conflict escalates as Azeri forces using Turkish Combat Drones and Israeli Harpis Loitering Munitions to attack Armenian targets and Armenian using Russian supplied weapons to fend off those attacks.

On midday September 30th, the Armenian Defence Ministry spokesperson ShushanStepanyan said that Azerbaijan had employed Turkish F-16s in the NE and then S directions of the defence line.

Today, the enemy employed Turkish F-16s in the NE and then S directions of the DA. At this moment, intense fighting continues along the entire battle line. The DA has noticeable achievements in several directions. Manpower & military-equipment losses of the enemy are increasing.

— ShushanStepanyanSeptember 30, 2020

She also reported that the Defensive Armenian army had achieved significant success in various directions.

This goes directly in contrast to the claims on September 29th, that Turkish F-16 fighter jets had already been deployed on the battlefield and had even downed an Armenian Su-25.

Armenia may use its Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems against Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh if Turkey begins using F-16 fighter jets to carry out attacks on Armenian forces.

This was announced by the Armenian Ambassador to Russia VardanToganyan.

The diplomat also clarified that “so far, the air defense systems in service are sufficient to eliminate Turkish drones.”

“The military leadership has repeatedly stated that if the sword of Damocles in the form of Turkish F-16s hangs over the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, all measures will be taken, including the Iskander. That is, the Armenian Armed Forces will have to use their entire arsenal to ensure security,” Toganyan added.

Back in 2016, Armenia became the first country where this operational-tactical complex was supplied.

Earlier, the spokesperson of the Armenian Defense Ministry ArtsrunHovhannisyan noted that, if necessary, Yerevan could use Iskander, and Baku, in response, promised to prepare an “adequate response”.

Such a development of the situation is rather unlikely, as it would mean Turkey’s open entry into a full-scale military conflict.

Several Ceasefire attempts were made by The Minsk Group consisting of Russia, US and France but all despite all the efforts and the meeting of Azeri and Armenian Foreign Ministers in Moscow and also recently in Washington no breakthrough has been achieved so far, right after the announcement of Ceasefire both the parties accuse each other of violating it.

Iran being alarmed by current developments on its borders as the Entire Southern Nagorno-Karabakh region has fallen in the hands of advancing Azeri Troops it has mobilized its own forces and deployed.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has deployed reinforcements on the border with the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where a heated battle between Armenian and Azerbaijan forces has been ongoing for nearly a month now

Commander of IRGC’ Ground Force Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpoor stated that and visited on October 23 the border area near Khoda-Afarin County in the Province of East Azerbaijan. Several shells fired by the Azerbaijani and Armenian forces fell there in the last few weeks.

So far both the parties are not interested in any forms of Ceasefire Agreements and Peaceful Settlements as clearly stated by Azerbaijan President IlhamAliyev “The can only be a Military Situation for this Conflict”

The most recent military situation in the region; (Source:Southfront)

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